what would you do? (hand 1)
08 April 2008
CO Villain is 24/6/0.8 over 800 hands
UTG and SB are unknown
UTG and SB are unknown
$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem (6 players)
Stacks:
UTG: $439.85
Hero: $156.00
CO: $188.65
BTN: $94.65
SB: $197.60
BB: $96.75
Pre-flop: ($1.5, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1
UTG calls $1, Hero raises to $5, CO raises to $12, 1 fold, SB calls $11.5, 1 fold, UTG calls $11, Hero calls $7
My image at the time was super nitty and I figured I needed to start opening up some hands to try to alter this fact, but 9To UTG+1 isn't the right hand to be doing this with. That being said, once there are 2 coldcallers with effective stacks being 150BB, I think I'm obligated to tag along. Can't really put the unknowns on ranges, maybe small pocket pairs or suited broadways, but I think the CO has QQ+ or AK here 100% of the time. It should be pretty easy to play against him knowing this.
Flop:
($49, 4 players)SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, CO bets $33, SB folds, UTG folds, Hero ?????
Decision time here... checking the flop is standard, but I know that this board has to be scary for our villain because his hand is, for all intents and purposes, face up. The folds by the SB and UTG villains rule out sets, flush draws, and most likely Jx on their part. So what do we do: fold, raise, or call? Let's make a case for each, and I'd like some feedback on what you'd choose and why.
1.) Fold - We know he very likely has us beat at the moment and need one of our 8 outs to make the best hand. Even if we hit our straight, though, 2 of our "outs" make a flush and can either make him the flush or give him redraw outs. It's not worth it, just fold now.
2.) Raise - The board is pretty scary for a 1pair hand, with easily made sets and flush draws abound. Unless he has AdAx he should be hard-pressed to find a call. However, he might also simply be playing his cards and see a big pair that he can't fold. I'll take my fold equity + my outs and roll the dice... now, how much do I raise to?
3.) Call - I've got 8 outs to make my hand. I can also probably use diamonds as decent bluff cards to fold out AA and KK with some regularity. Jacks can probably be bluffed with some percentage of effectiveness as well. Let's call here and re-evaluate the turn.
3b.) If you choose to call, what is your line if make the straight? What is your line if a diamond comes? What is your line if a J falls on the turn?
Posted byM0NIKER at 4:12 PM
2 comments:
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Honestly, given villain's preflop raising tendencies, his lack of aggression, his super small 3-bet range, and the fact that he bet into 3 people on this flop, I doubt he is ever folding, and I also doubt he is the type of player capable of folding AA or KK.
Since I think you really do not have any fold equity, I personally think your best play is to just fold.
If you do decide to raise, I would suggest raising some amount that would commit you to the pot, that he would KNOW commits you, and then call if shoved on obvviously. I say this because to me, a shove looks like a draw on this board, so if you bet a little less than a shove, but still a large raise, then he might actually be MORE afraid. Though ultimately, I don't think player is ever folding his hand.
I don't think we have the FE in this spot to be shoving profitably given villain's range, and if it does happen to be profitable (doubtful in my mind), it's prob not the most +EV action.
We do have a couple things going for us, though:
1. Given the fact that he's not folding on this board, we can get paid on our draws.
2. Our draw, while not quite as strong hot&cold versus a flush draw, has strength as it's more disguised.
I think considering both of these points, even OOP, could possibly warrent a call in this spot. We'll hit our straight 8:47 times and we're if we're postulating he never folds (we'll assume this logic holds up on the turn regardless for now), we're calling $33 to win $193 (pot+bet+effective stack).
A few turn scenarios based off of this (x = non diamond)
1. Qx. Shove -- we expect villain to begrudingly call here. While we could have QJ in this spot, it's unlikely and he prob has outs.
2. 7x. Shove -- same as above. This is the best card for us.
3. Qd or 7d. Shove here to get value from AdAx/KdKx as he gets 2:1 there and will be calling incorrectly. We obv love calls for AxAx/KxKx which he may make.
4. Blankx. Check/fold. Any bet he makes is going to commit us.
5. Blank diamond or J. This is the most interesting as we could try to bluff these cards. I think we could do something interesting such as bet a non-committing amount as a blocker to potentially draw to a big hand. I simply don't think we're going to be folding villain enough if we shove on these cards (our story doesn't make sense and we're levereged too deeply into the pot).
Ugh. Now that I've done the above breakdown, I'm not sure I'm liking the call; therefore it might be a fold. Here's why: we're basically breaking even versus our implied odds if we stack the villain EVERY time 33:193 vs 8:47.
Other considerations:
1. How often does villain have AdAx/KdKx and get there? What about AdKd?
2. How often call and fold out hands which we want to get value from (AAxx, KKxx, AKxx)?
3. How often can we bluff J's and diamonds effectively?
Arggggggggg. This might be a fold. Which is totally teh ghey as the board is ideal for our hand.