weekly update #14
16 April 2008
7 Apr - 13 Apr:
2,773 hands (100nl)
$816.23
14.72 ptbb/100
I runned spicy hot last week. Sustainable? No. But does it illustrate that I'm improving my game and finding more spots to make money -- I like to think so. We'll see if this continues throughout the month, but I feel like the videos I've been watching lately have really been sinking in and some of the hand analysis I've been doing with malfaire has really been beneficial. Some decent hands to take a look at below, and then a few where the poker gods decided to say "Congrats for trying to improve your game, why don't we let you hit the flop so hard it's impossible to misplay your hand." (As an aside, I will also display how this logic is flawed, as I successfully managed to mess up quads for 200BB stacks -- yay me!)
** No results posted for now, as I don't want them to influence responses (will update) **
Hand 1:
Villain is 38 / 8 / 1.3 over 75 hands. Didn't really know how to interpret his flop and turn leads, as I don't know if he would be doing this more often with a draw or weak top pair type hand. If it's a draw, am I better off just calling? Or is getting it in on the turn here fine?
Hand 2:
BTN is playing 27 / 21 / 3.5 over 80 hands; BB is playing 55 / 6/ 0.5 over 150 hands. Being 185BB deep in this hand vs. the original raiser had me a bit spooked here. I really, really do not like my line vs. his range. I think I know what I would like to change about my play, but what line would you take?
Hand 3:
UTG is playing 41 / 4 / 0.4 over 260 hands; BTN is playing 32 / 9 / 1.0 over 200 hands. Not too concerned with the flop and turn play, except possibly the turn bet size (thoughts?). I feel as though I need to play this hand fast due to the wet board, but is there any merit in checking the river and feigning a missed flush draw? What if I told you that the villain's river AF was 5.0?
Hand 4:
BTN is playing 25 / 17 / 1.9 over 250 hands. Should probably be leading the flop and turn here seeing as though I've got top 2 on a pretty wet board, but sometimes the inner donk in me shines. I don't really have a problem getting it in on the turn here, because I think I'm maximizing my value vs. draws (whether they be Qx or clubs), but once again I hate my line. Thoughts on how better to approach this hand?
Hand 5:
Villain is running 43 / 6 / 0.6 over 180 hands. Pretty sure my flop and turn bets need to be slightly larger to charge the potential draws, but once the villain wakes up on the river with a 1/2pot bet how do you react? Is this the sign of someone hitting a chased flush, or is it a slow-played weaker Ax trying to get value from a perceived missed draw? Call behind, fold, raise for value?
Poker Gods givith:
Hand 6:
Would be quite interesting if I didn't river the K and he still shoved...
Hand 7:
Note how I miss about $25 in value because I'm a retard. He obviously has a smaller set that rivered a boat (uh, duh m0niker, you are holding the other two Aces so he does not have AK) and is calling a shove. Granted, I almost peed my pants when I saw the 4 glorious aces, but such silly mistakes make me upset with the hand.
And Poker Gods taketh away (on the river no less):
Hand 8
Hand 9
Hand 10
Posted byM0NIKER at 2:46 PM
Hand 1: Your equity went wayyyyy down on this turn. You could be dead and there's only one card to come. Villain looks like he's trying to get his stack in. I think if you shove the turn you have to plan to spike a spade on the river; work on that. Seriously though, probably this is a fold. You could have implied odds to call, but you have to be stacking him 89% of the time when you hit to break even here (uh, I think this math is right....). I'm assuming middle of the road (8 spade outs are good, A no good). I think I'd like pushing on him more than calling here; you just don't give him a chance to make a big mistake if you call (him shoving into your flush is the biggest mistake he can make). You give him a chance to make that big mistake if he folds to your shove (folding a pair), I just don't think he'll likely do it. Gosh, the more I look at this it's a fold. It's just a marginal spot IMO. I'd have misplayed this. I think your flop raise is fine, in this spot, as villain's range on the flop given his actions is comprised of mostly draws and possible combos.
Hand 2: If you're leading this flop, I'd lead bigger, like for $10 to pot. Kinda "meh" on your turn line -- the only thing that got there was JQ, but if you're trying to rep a T there, I'd check to him, and if you'd lead and were raised it's sick given stacks. On the river I'd definitely be check/raising; probably all in. He could read you for a T and look you up with JQ, a T himself, or whatever. He might think we had a busted draw (comprises a lot of the board). If he has 99/TT/KK/KT/T9 that just sucks for us, IMO.
Hand 3: PF standard. Like the sizing on the flop bet, nice. I'd definitely bet the turn more, though -- texture is much crazy now. Obv river shove.
Hand 4: CR this ALL DAY. There are mad people in the pot and you want to charge draws like crazy. Calling and getting multiway sucks more than shutting out players here and getting HU with BTN, plus the other stacks aren't deep or anything. Obv CRAI on safe turn.
Hand 5: I think I'd bet a wee bit more on this flop. At least $6 possibly $7. Turn looks okay given the pot size. Suck river which you can't raise, IMO. Call that shit.
Hand 6: I'd still bet more on this flop, $6 works. Turn is full of vomit (the CiB), but I like your line. His shove looks valuey, but we're Level 1 retards: easy call.
Hand 7: Uuuuh how do I get villains to put in money Preflop magically? This hand is all fucked up in the HH. After reading the real HH, bet less if your read doesn't have him on a set, shove if otherwise.
Hand 8: Standard IMO.
Hand 9: Good call, bad result. That's a very good call, in fact. I'd have mucked maybe.
Hand 10: Easy call.
Hand 1: Honestly, I think I fold. You can't really assume your A is an out and so you have roughly 8 or 9 outs to hit, and it really seems break even at best.
Hand 2: Okay, he is raiaing KK here 100% of the time on this flop. Your bet in a 3-way pot screams strength, so I see no reason on such a draw heavy board that he does not raise with 109. He might be slow playing 99 here, but I doubt it. If you have a read that he is going to ebt the river, then your check is fine, but why are you not raising? He can easily look you up with worse.
Hand 3: This seems to smell of a flush draw. I would check to induce a bet. This will backfire sometimes, but given aggressive nature of villain on river, you can get value by checking. btw, FWIW, I have removed the AF per street from my HUD layout. I use a popup window now, and have aggression frequency by street, I think this is a much easier stat to analyze. Also, I think I am relying too much on those stats anyways. I should only really be using them in marginal situations imo. here what do you think his range is? A lot of his range is Ks and a lot is draws. I really think that there probably is not much difference in betting or checking as far as your value in this position, because I think his range, by accident, is pretty balanced between made hands and draws. I would check personally, though I am not sure if it is optimal or not.
Hand 4: Villain seems reasonably competent. Therefore, I doubt he cbets this board into this many people with anything that 4 hits, so I think your assessment on the turn is correct. But against this villain, i want to get it in on the flop. No sense slow playing it.
Hand 5: Bet bigger on the flop. Why are you not raising the river? It seems he pays you off with many weaker aces. You lose sometimes when he has a boat, but you win a lot more when he has Ax that you beat.
Hand 6: He doesn't have the J and he shoves, I think it is a fold. With the K ... NICE HAND!!!
Hand 7: Can't read it.
Hand 8-10: Coooooolers. Don't you love getting it in with AK, thinking your are flipping and content due to dead money, and then see you are DOMINATING!!
Edit: Hand 5, flush hits, obviously snap call only, never raise. I seemed to have missed, because A) I am tired after watching the Wings lose last night, B) I suck at poker, or C) both.